Elections

Without the Arab parties, neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot has a majority in Israel's parliament

Israel's election has ended in deadlock. According to preliminary results, Netanyahu's bloc has 53 seats and Gadi Eisenkot's opposition 48. The Arab parties won 19 seats, the most in their history. Without them, nobody can form a majority; with them, almost nobody wants to govern. We look at who voted how, why Arab voters turned out and what comes next for Israel.

Israel election: Netanyahu will not win a majority, prediction shows

Pre-election polls put Eisenkot's Yashar in the lead, and the overnight running tally overstated Likud. From the first hour of the count, the DataTimes.cz prediction showed a stalemate: Netanyahu's bloc will end up with 53 seats, Gadi Eisenkot's opposition with 48, and the 19 members of the Arab parties will decide whether anyone has a majority.

Why Lula won: three million more people voted in the runoff

Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round, gained the backing of three defeated candidates and led in the polls. Yet Lula remains president. Between the two rounds he added 10.4 million votes, more than all the eliminated candidates received together in the first round. The outcome was decided by people who had not voted the first time or had cast an invalid ballot.

Brazil's presidential election: Lula wins the runoff, prediction shows

Polls before the runoff had Flávio Bolsonaro slightly ahead, and during the night the running count briefly put him in front of Lula. From the first minutes of the count, however, the DataTimes.cz prediction pointed to a win for the incumbent president: Lula will finish on 51.8 per cent and beat the son of his predecessor by more than four million votes.

Rivals won over ANO's voters. The movement's candidates lost a third of their votes in the second round and won nowhere

Between the first and second rounds of the Senate election, ANO's candidates lost a third of their votes, their opponents only a tenth. The voters of candidates who did not make it to the run-off went mainly to ANO's rivals. The governing parties won none of the 27 seats, and only one woman was elected.

Turnout in Czech municipal elections rose to 48%, but kept falling in the towns with the lowest turnout

48.00% of voters turned out, 1.9 percentage points more than in 2022, and turnout rose in 12 of the 14 regions. But in the quarter of larger towns with the lowest turnout it fell in 18 of 24. Five towns are below 30% this year; four years ago there were none.

About half of last year's ANO voters skipped the municipal and Senate elections, among SPOLU voters mostly a fifth at most

In the 14 cities and 8 Senate districts with counted results, between 38% and 76% of people who voted for ANO last year did not vote (median 54%). Among SPOLU voters, no more than 20% stayed away in 20 of the 22 places (median 7%). The estimates are based on polling-district results and two independent methods.

Women make up a third of candidates for Czech municipal councils but only a quarter of mayors. In big cities, even fewer

The share of women on candidate lists for Czech municipal councils has been rising since 1994 and this year reached 35%. Among those elected, however, it is consistently four to five percentage points lower, and among mayors lower still. The larger the municipality and the higher the office, the fewer women.

Czechia has the most municipalities per capita in Europe, three times as many as Austria

Next Friday and Saturday, councils will be elected in 6,251 Czech municipalities. Half of them have fewer than 500 inhabitants; in Austria, only one municipality in twenty is that small. Running the smallest municipalities costs almost twice as much per inhabitant, and in nearly half of them only a single list of candidates is standing. Why Czechia has so many municipalities, and what happened when Austria merged its own.

Young voters and rents carried Die Linke in Berlin. Its real problem is not communism but antisemitism in parts of the party

Die Linke won the Berlin election with 25.7% and took 47% among voters under thirty. Election-day data and results from 1,572 polling districts show that age and housing in a city of renters were decisive. In Czech media the party is often portrayed as a far-left force comparable to the AfD. Political scientists, the offices for the protection of the constitution and its record in government point to something else: a radical, not an extremist party, whose risks lie elsewhere than Czech coverage suggests.

For the first time since 1949, the CDU has dropped out of a state parliament. Our model showed it from the first count

For the first time in the history of the Federal Republic, the CDU has failed to win seats in a state parliament. Our data prediction showed shortly after the count began that the party would stay below the five per cent threshold.

In the closest Swedish election estimate, a single seat separates the blocs

Sweden is electing a new Riksdag today, from 8:00 to 20:00. The latest polls, conducted on 4–11 September, give Magdalena Andersson's red-green bloc a lead of 45.9–51.5% against 47.8–49.0% for Ulf Kristersson's governing coalition – in the closest estimate, the difference is a single seat, 175 to 174. If the right wins, the nationalist Sweden Democrats could take government posts for the first time in history: they agreed on this in March with the Liberals, who themselves are above the 4% threshold by only a small margin.

Where Are You Heading, Czechia?

Political parties' answers to 100 key questions reveal where the Czech Republic is heading.

Unique Election Model: Who Has a Chance at Seats in Parliament and Who Will Govern

Just as in the previous electoral period, we have been processing all relevant polls since the last parliamentary elections...

Voting Advice Applications - The Most Popular Pre-Election Apps

How voting advice applications increase informed political participation.

Romania at the epicentre of hybrid war. Just like Czechia

Hybrid campaigns, algorithm manipulation and influence operations show how democratic processes can be destabilised.

Romania: a crisis of democracy in the presidential election

The annulment of the presidential election over a hybrid attack exposes how vulnerable democratic processes are.

Maps of Election Results: Deeper Insights on First Sight

Telling the detailed story of the elections.

Real-Time Predictions of Election Results: The New Normal

Real-time predictions are reshaping election nights.

Data-driven Analytical Election Forensics

Analytical methods to detect irregularities in election results.

Voter Shifts Between Elections: Insights from Statistical Analysis

Detailed data analysis reveal hidden changes between elections.