Just as in the previous electoral period, we have been processing all relevant polls since the last parliamentary elections and tracking the development of individual political parties' chances. We regularly update the data with each new poll.
An important note at the outset: Polls capture public sentiment at the time the data was collected, not at the moment of publication ⇒ the last independently published poll may not reflect the most recent voter attitudes. This is why we focus on overall trends and long-term tracking, rather than one-time spikes, which are often based on older data and do not reflect current reality.
Since August 2024, we have been tracking the "race" not only by individual parties but also by coalitions expected in the 2025 parliamentary elections. This view better reflects the current political situation – for example, the Spolu coalition (ODS, TOP 09, and KDU-ČSL) or the new - and now defunct - alliance of the Oath and Motorists movements.
How to control the chart and how to interpret it
- The key chart above shows the development of election models according to all agencies since the 2021 elections. By clicking on a party in the legend in the interactive version, you can display its details, or you can select only a specific agency.
- Hovering over a point in the chart displays details of a specific poll (agency, median date when the poll was conducted, and of course the specific measured result for the selected party).
- Clicking on menu items allows you to filter agencies or individual parties.
- To return to the original view, click on the legend again.
- The lines represent the weighted average as it develops over time.
With each new poll, we recalculate the weighted average according to the Mandáty.cz methodology, reflecting the time of data collection, not their publication. Voter opinions can change – therefore, a poll conducted in August has less weight than more current data from October. The chart thus logically displays a weighted average that takes time periods into account.
Key question: why do polls differ?
The election model reflects the current distribution of voter support and includes responses from those who plan to vote. Polls then differ in the methodology of individual agencies – some use face-to-face interviews, others telephone or online surveys.
An important role is played by voters who are not yet decided or are hesitating between parties. Their decision has a fundamental impact on poll accuracy – parties that can activate these undecided voters or non-voters may ultimately achieve better election results.