Election Results Will Be Known a Few Dozen Minutes After Polling Stations Close
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It's a challenge for producers of traditional election studios. Hours spent watching slowly appearing percentages on the Czech Statistical Office website are a thing of the past. The era of accurate election predictions is arriving, which can determine the result already at about 1.5% of counted votes – that is, about half an hour after polling stations close. It goes this fast, for example, in the second round of presidential elections, where there are only two candidates and the entire Czech Republic is one electoral district. Counting voter votes is in this case the easiest of all elections held in the Czech Republic. In parliamentary elections, there are 14 electoral districts according to 14 regions and, for example, this year 26 political subjects ran. This is why vote counting takes longer and results are then known later.
What still seemed like technological sci-fi just a few years ago is reality today. Prediction models combining Czech Statistical Office open data, mathematical analysis, and knowledge of regional patterns can calculate with extraordinary accuracy who will win the elections – before most polling stations even finish counting.
What the Prediction Shows
To make it clear how individual parties are doing, clear graphs are used for visualization, and in presidential elections, the so-called needle. For the younger generation, the already practically unknown Czech term rafička has been revived as a translation of the English needle – a term used by media such as The New York Times or BBC in their election projections.
How the Prediction Is Calculated
The prediction is based on the principle that the smallest polling stations are usually counted first, and their results are therefore statistically recalculated according to the past behavior of similar polling stations.
The model takes into account geography, size of municipalities, electoral history, and counting speed.
The model takes into account geography, size of municipalities, electoral history, and counting speed.
Every few minutes, the result is then refined – from the first prediction to the final count.
Unlike mere estimates or "commentary" from election studios, this model has a mathematical foundation and clearly quantified uncertainty.
Unlike mere estimates or "commentary" from election studios, this model has a mathematical foundation and clearly quantified uncertainty.
"Every polling station has its data footprint. We know how it voted before and how trends usually develop between cities and rural areas. Thanks to this, we can very accurately estimate how the entire Czech Republic will turn out, even if we only have a small fraction of data so far," adds Michal Škop.
Czech Prediction Among World Elite
Predictions of this type are commonly used in the USA or Great Britain, where media often announce the election winner before election commissions.
In Czechia, key is the cooperation with the Czech Statistical Office and their open data, which they provide during ongoing vote counting. It is precisely thanks to this that such quality predictions can be made at all. The results are not some "crystal ball," but an open algorithm that can be analyzed retrospectively.
In Czechia, key is the cooperation with the Czech Statistical Office and their open data, which they provide during ongoing vote counting. It is precisely thanks to this that such quality predictions can be made at all. The results are not some "crystal ball," but an open algorithm that can be analyzed retrospectively.
It's Not a Competition, But Information
The primary goal of the prediction is not to race with other newsrooms, but to inform the public honestly and comprehensibly. While guests in television studios usually warn that "big cities can change everything," the prediction already includes these differences.
"We want people to get the most accurate information as soon as possible – and to understand how we arrive at it," says Mahdalová. "We explain that it's not fortune-telling, but consistent work with data. And one more important thing: election studios in all media, especially in public television, have high viewership. Thanks to predictions, guests in studios could then speak significantly more factually and speculate less. Similarly, journalists who are in the field at political parties' election headquarters - they could then ask much more specifically."
Data as a Public Service
The Mahdalová & Škop team has long been dedicated to data journalism and popularization of data in the public space.
They are behind projects such as Voting Calculator, Voting Inventory, or Data Journalism.cz.
They are behind projects such as Voting Calculator, Voting Inventory, or Data Journalism.cz.
The 2025 parliamentary election predictions are thus not just a "technological toy" – but part of a broader effort to make elections accessible to the public and increase understanding of how results are formed.
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Mahdalová & Škop – Data that speaks before results are counted.