You arrive at your usual pump to fill up with Natural 95 and expect to save money after the government intervention? In most cases, almost not at all.
The package that Prime Minister Andrej Babiš presented just before Easter looks drastic at first glance: capping gas station margins at 2.50 crowns per liter and reducing the excise tax on diesel by 2.35 crowns including VAT. But this actually opened the possibility for gas stations to increase their margins. How? Because although the government has prepared an analysis of the current situation, it either doesn't work with it or can't interpret it and draws wrong conclusions from it.
How the changes will affect you when refueling
You drive on gasoline and refuel at a regular pump – Most passenger cars that take people to work or children to school every day run on Natural 95 – in 2025, gasoline passenger cars make up approximately two-thirds of new registrations, and the majority in the entire fleet. The government intervention means practically nothing for you. The excise tax on gasoline is not changing – it remains at 12.84 CZK per liter, the same as in 2010. And your pump's margin? It was below the capped limit of 2.50 CZK long before regulation.
You drive on diesel and refuel off the highway – Diesel passenger cars make up about a quarter of the entire vehicle fleet in the Czech Republic. But almost all trucks, vans, and buses run on diesel – in Europe, it's over 90% of vans and almost 97% of trucks. Diesel thus accounts for 73% of all fuel consumption in Czechia, which is why diesel price increases affect the economy as a whole. Although the government reduced the excise tax by 2.35 CZK per liter including VAT, which is a real relief, many regular gas stations had diesel margins close to zero or below. Margins at zero are unsustainable in the long term, and whether the entire tax reduction will be reflected in a lower price at the pump depends on the specific station.
You drive on diesel on the highway – This is where Babiš's measure works the most. Capping margins can easily save you 5–10 CZK per liter, and the tax reduction adds another 2.35 CZK. But highway stations are the exception, not the rule – their margins have always been significantly higher than in cities because drivers on the highway have limited choice. Regulation here corrects a long-term extreme, not the average.
This isn't the first time the government has addressed expensive fuel contrary to data. Even Fiala's cabinet in 2022 also focused attention on gas station margins and temporary excise tax reduction - even though it was already clear from the data that the problem didn't lie with pump operators. Our earlier analysis showed that gas station margins didn't fall only after state intervention - they were already low on their own. While refinery and distribution margins were growing extraordinarily, over which Czechia has virtually no influence.
The current government also offers the public a (completely unnecessary) "fight with gas stations" - that is, with the most visible, not the most important link in the chain. It's a politically understandable gesture that looks good at a press conference but misses the point. Fiala then and Babiš now are essentially doing the same thing – pretending to solve high prices with a quick intervention, although data shows that the Czech government cannot directly reach the main source of price increases.
The paradox of the entire measure is that it will help most those who refueled on the highway even at significantly increased prices. Those who regularly refuel at a discount pump or supermarket – typically people who care most about prices – will save almost nothing.
The market solved it itself, even before the government
The Israeli and US attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz immediately drove the price of Brent crude above $100 per barrel, reaching up to $112 during March. The average diesel price rose by 4.75 CZK in just one week before the government intervention and by almost 15 CZK since the end of February.
The Ministry of Finance launched monitoring of margins at 2,530 stations from 558 operators on March 6. But the results did not confirm the story of greedy pump operators that regularly appears during times of rapid fuel price increases. It didn't apply even during the Russian attack on Ukraine, when prices also shot up quickly.
Average gas station margins were falling even before monitoring began. Before the crisis, they ranged between 2.70 and 3.20 CZK per liter. After the outbreak of the conflict, they fell to 1.90–2.60 CZK. After monitoring started, they descended to around one crown. As of March 15, 2026, the average diesel margin was 0.84 CZK per liter.
The market corrected margins itself. The key is simple: the Czech fuel market is highly competitive. A driver whose favorite pump raises prices drives across the street. A gas station that tries it loses customers that same day. Nevertheless, on April 2, the government capped margins at 2.50 CZK – about triple what the average diesel margin actually was at the time.
So if gas station margins are below one crown, a cap at 2.50 CZK won't help consumers – rather the opposite, it gives pumps room to raise prices. And what keeps them from further price increases is the same thing that has worked so far: competition.
Babiš's numbers don't add up
In his statements, Babiš worked with contradictory numbers. On March 30, he claimed that Čepro sells diesel for 45.50 CZK per liter, but at the same time stated that it was buying it in March for 40.70 CZK. This would imply that state-owned Čepro's margin is around five crowns – a number Čepro has never had in its history.
The explanation is simple: the figure of 40.70 CZK was outdated. It was valid around mid-March when prices were just starting to rise sharply. On Thursday, March 20, Čepro raised the wholesale price of diesel by almost two crowns, on Friday it added another 1.80 CZK. As of April 1, stations were buying diesel from refineries for approximately 46 CZK per liter including all taxes – this follows from the price lists of Unipetrol (Orlen) and Čepro.
Who actually profits
Gas station margins, especially for diesel at current prices, are close to zero or negative. So who profits from the price increase?
We asked ourselves the same question in June 2022 when we analyzed the crisis at that time. The answer then and now is the same: refineries and distributors. The component that nearly tripled from January to April 2026 is refinery and distribution margins – according to our calculations from CCS and Tank ONO data, over 13 CZK per liter of diesel as of April 1. This part of the chain is not subject to regulation.
A bit of confusion at the end
Andrej Babiš described how the government negotiated twice with "distributors" and diesel prices on D1 decreased by approximately two crowns. But here he's mixing two different things.
The main fuel distributors to Czechia are Polish PKN Orlen (refineries in Kralupy, Litvínov, and Pardubice) and Hungarian MOL (Slovnaft refinery in Bratislava). Both companies are also operators of gas stations on D1 and other main routes. So Babiš negotiated with refineries – and they are precisely the part of the chain where margins are skyrocketing, but where the Czech government has no direct regulatory tools. PKN Orlen is a Polish state company, MOL is a Hungarian conglomerate.
Gas station margin regulation doesn't concern them as refineries. As operators of pumps on D1, maybe by a few crowns – but that's all.