The European Parliament elections 2024 have concluded, but one unresolved issue has taken on the feel of a detective story. Michaela Šojdrová, an experienced politician and former MEP from the Czech KDU-ČSL party, is just 616 votes short of returning to Brussels. It's possible that these missing votes are real and could be recovered.

Imagine voting for your preferred candidate only to find out later that your vote has disappeared. This is precisely what some voters in the Zlín region claim happened. These voters insist they cast preferential votes for Šojdrová, yet the official results show zero votes for her in their precincts.

An electoral analysis by Data Journalism Studio supports their claims. While Šojdrová has highlighted discrepancies in three municipalities, our broader analysis uncovered issues in six precincts across Moravia. Official results show her receiving no votes in these precincts, while her colleague Filip Benda, a candidate from Prague representing ODS, performed surprisingly well.

Our investigation identified 139 votes that were very likely intended for Šojdrová but were mistakenly attributed to another candidate.

Although 139 votes may seem insignificant, in the context of European elections, every vote counts. Šojdrová is a well-known politician, and it is plausible that she gained additional preferential votes outside her traditional voter base where similar errors may have occurred.

Recovering 477 additional "lost" votes could dramatically change her position. This would enable her to exceed the 5% threshold of preferential votes required for the coalition Spolu under Czech electoral law. If successful, she would leap from the ninth spot on the candidate list directly into the European Parliament.

To this end, Šojdrová has filed a petition with the Czech Supreme Administrative Court, which would decide whether a recount is warranted and how it should proceed.

The coalition Spolu received 661,250 preferential votes in the European elections. Five percent of this total is 33,063 votes. Šojdrová secured 32,447 votes, leaving her just 616 votes short of winning a seat. Of these, 139 misplaced votes have already been identified, leaving a gap of 477 votes to bridge.

Detecting precincts where Šojdrová may have lost votes due to reporting errors involves several methods. This analysis focuses on preferential votes for adjacent candidates on the shared Spolu coalition ticket.

Discrepancies appear not only in the Zlín region but also elsewhere in the Czech Republic. However, in Zlín's traditional stronghold of KDU-ČSL, the inconsistencies are striking. It is highly unlikely that a Prague-based ODS candidate would outperform Šojdrová in an area where she enjoys long-standing voter support. The idea that Šojdrová received zero votes in such precincts defies logical explanation.

This case highlights the importance of robust electoral data analysis in safeguarding democratic processes. Errors in vote allocation, however small they may seem, can have a profound impact on election outcomes. By leveraging forensic data analysis techniques, this study underscores how transparency and accuracy in elections can be achieved, ensuring every vote truly counts.